Local polynomial method for ensemble forecast of time series

a time-series analysis of the demand for life insurance in iran

با توجه به تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها ما دریافتیم که سطح درامد و تعداد نمایندگیها باتقاضای بیمه عمر رابطه مستقیم دارند و نرخ بهره و بار تکفل با تقاضای بیمه عمر رابطه عکس دارند

Tourism Time Series Forecast

In this chapter four combinations of input features and the feedforward, cascade forward and recurrent architectures are compared for the task of forecast tourism time series. The input features of the ANNs consist in the combination of the previous 12 months, the index time modeled by two nodes used to the year and month and one input with the daily hours of sunshine (insolation duration). The...

Multivariate Regression Estimation : Local Polynomial Fitting for Time Series

We consider the estimation of the multivariate regression function m (x 1 , . . . ,xd) = E [ψ (Yd) | X 1 = x 1 , . . . ,Xd = xd], and its partial derivatives, for stationary random processes {Yi ,Xi} using local higher-order polynomial fitting. Particular cases of ψ yield estimation of the conditional mean, conditional moments and conditional distributions. Joint asymptotic normality is establi...

Using Wavelets and Splines to Forecast Non-Stationary Time Series

 This paper deals with a short term forecasting non-stationary time series using wavelets and splines. Wavelets can decompose the series as the sum of two low and high frequency components. Aminghafari and Poggi (2007) proposed to predict high frequency component by wavelets and extrapolate low frequency component by local polynomial fitting. We propose to forecast non-stationary process u...

A Polynomial Method for Temporal Disaggregation of Multivariate Time Series